Australia's Unsuccessful Attempt to Host Cop31 Looks Like a Mess – But It Could Actually Be the Best Result Possible

Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a conference obstructed from the top if his administration led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.