A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
